Monday, March 11, 2024

Small can be beautiful; Big is not always desirable

One key outcome from the Basel Capital Accords which started in 1998 was the imposition of capital requirements on banks to ensure stability of banks and the financial system. The 1988 Capital Accords calls for relative capital requirement (i.e. capital must cover at least 8% of bank risk assets. BSP embraced the relative capital requirements and made it more stringent (10% instead of 8%), but also retained the minimum absolute capital requirements. Along the way, the thinking in BSP is that bigness is good, and that consolidation and mergers must be encouraged. The predilection for bigness was mirrored in ever growing minimum capital requirement despite the parallel relative Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 10%.

 

Is bigness always desirable? Does size of capital make a bank immune from risk and the banking system safe from instability. History tells us this is not the case. Baring Bank, a 233-year big English Bank, collapsed due to operational risk failures. Banks big and small suffered during the Asian Financial Crisis. The US Sub-prime Crisis which morphed in the Global Financial Crisis was started by sophisticated big banks. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were mid-sized American banks.

 

Can small be beautiful? If a Philippine rural bank with small capital remains profitable and compliant with relative CAR requirements, and extends credit in rural areas even if loan purpose has moved away from agriculture to consumer lending, should it be closed simply because it failed to meet an absolute capital amount? Lending to rural folk is still financial inclusion, which remains an important objective of the central bank. Shutting such bank reduces economic value added and welfare in the rural community it serves. Does its shut off significantly reduces systemic risk? Not necessarily; it may even make it worse.

If a productive, profitable and CAR-compliant rural bank wants to stay small, is there anything wrong with that? Most economies are built on swarms of small and medium enterprises. I personally know of a second-generation rural banker who simply decided to stop the business because he grew tired of the increasing BSP requirements on rural banks. BSP write in policies that its treatment of banks vary with the size and level of sophistication, and yet in reality there is tendency to impose on smaller banks practices that are done in commercial banks. Examples of this will be expectation of having full-time compliance officer and chief risk officer which may not be necessarily needed full-time in rural banks with simpler business models. The expectation of similar practices eventually push the rural banks to hire more people and hike cost, or leave the business altogether.

BSP’s concern for rural bank stability and contagion to the bigger financial system is valid, moreso in the light of irresponsible rural bankers who left their depositors hanging by engaging in unsound banking practices. But maybe it is time to abandon the absolute capital requirement in favor of the global requirement of capital relative to risk assets.

Small can be beautiful. Big is not always desirable.

 

 

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Revisions in Implementing Rules and Regulations of Maharlika Fund Act

The revisions are not improvements as touted by the government. They are relaxation of governance standards and certain provisions of the law. They do not inspire confidence in the fund. They evoke questions and distrust. What is the administration trying to do with the Fund?

 

1.     Removal of immediate transfer of GFI contributions to BTR after approval of IRR.  This can imply two things: (a) early transfer was a mistake, or (b) early transfer was deliberate for undisclosed reasons. In principle, the GFIs still own those monies prior to operationalization of MIC, and should still turn profit or earn interest on those funds prior to actual investment in MIC.

 

2.  Removal of Section 21 on the appointment, qualification and functions of the Corporate Secretary. While the Corp Sec role was not explicit in the MIF law, one can’t help but ask why this whole section was removed when it actually helps define the governance structure. The Corp Sec plays a critical role being the official recorder and safekeeper of MIC Board decisions.

 

3.  Removal of Section 29 on Additional Qualifications on Regular and Independent Directors (education, professional experience, track record and ethical standards). Removal of Section is inconsistent with the legal requirement to have Regular Directors “of good moral standing and reputation, of recognized probity and independence, and have substantial experience and expertise.” The Law also states that “the Advisory Body shall ensure that selected members of the Board of Directors are with proven probity, competence, expertise and experience in finance, economics, investments, business management, or law.” The Law specifically states that specific guidelines on Board of Directors (Section 21 of RA 11954) should be in the IRR “to ensure that only those eligible and qualified shall be appointed to the Board.”

      

4.    Section 32 on Period for Filing Director Seats was modified to add this provision: “Provided, That, the President may either accept or reject the recommendation of the Advisory Body: and, Provided, finally, That, the President may require the Advisory Body to submit additional names of nominees.”  The President as approving body naturally has the option to accept or reject director recommendations. As members of the Cabinet, the Advisory Board members are alter-egos of the President so they naturally should consider the Presidential perspective in their recommendation. They may even pre-clear nominees with the President. Not sure what the big deal is here, unless there are other concerns not being disclosed.

 

5.      Removal of a portion of Section 33 on Solicitation of Nominees and Applications. A 5-point list of documentary requirements “necessary in evaluating their qualifications and disqualifications) was removed contrary to the spirit of the law. These documents include clearances from Civil Service Commission, NBI, Ombudsman, Sandiganbayan; criminal or administrative cases; and endorsements from civil service organizations. Criminal or administrative cases are explicitly stated in the law as qualifications.

 

6.    Section 40 was amended removing 9 skills that the Chief Investment & Operating Officer must have. While that list is not in the law, one wonders why the more specific list/guidelines have to be taken out.

 

7.     Section 41 on Risk Management was amended removing the list of functions. While that list is not in the law, one wonders why the more specific list/guidelines have to be taken out.

 

8.      Amendment of Section 42 on Audit Committee to remove guidelines on the composition of the committee and its functions. Ironically, why the legislators prided themselves on supposed safeguards, the law only mentioned that the Board must constitute an Audit Committee and nothing else. The composition of the Committee was not even established. By corporate governance standards, this committee has to be chaired by an Independent Director. Removal of guidelines that are supposed to fill-in gaps in the law is therefore questioned.

 

9.     Deletion of Section 47 (Initial Appointment of CEO and Directors) which sets time table and nomination process

 

10.  Deletion of Section 48 (Organizational Meeting). This is actually important in operationalizing the corporation so one wonders why this is removed.

 

Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Paradoxes of Inflation

 In economics, there are conventional theories about inflation. While these often dominate discussions on inflation, some these theories become paradoxes when applied to special cases where their assumptions do not apply.

Below are three examples of paradoxes of inflation:


Increasing Interest Rate to address Supply-driven Inflation

Theory:  Inflation is caused by excess demand. Solution is to increase interest rate to dampen demand.

Paradox: Prices barely respond despite successive rate hikes. Inflation falls and stabilizes after a year because of base effects, but CPI remains elevated.


Interest impact on inflation lags with hikes, but keeps pace if they are cuts

Theory:  It takes several months for interest rate hikes to take full effect. This is the usual explanation given when inflation remains elevated despite rate hikes.

Paradox:  Central Banks keep raising interest rates even if inflation is already showing signs of peaking or reversing. Monetary authorities forget the impact lag when near the inflation inflection point. This leads to overshooting.


Core Inflation expected to keep pace with Headline Inflation

Theory: Core inflation is a measure designed to exclude volatile components of inflation. Analysts cite the higher core inflation lagging behind the falling headline inflation as basis for continued concern. 

Paradox: Core inflation will certainly and mathematically lag headline inflation in both ups and downs because of the removal of volatile components. Even if core inflation remains elevated, they can be offset by the higher-weighted, falling food and fuel components of headline inflation.


Thursday, September 8, 2016

What's Dragging Down the Stock Market: US Rate Hike, Durterte Econo-politics, All of the Above?



Facts:

  1. The Philippine Composite Index (PSEI) has been going down for two weeks now. In the last 10 days including today, it only blipped up twice (last Friday and today). The general trend is a downtrend.
  2. The current index value (7,638.13) is now lower that when Duterte started his administration (7,830.55).
  3. Foreign funds have been going out. This can be gleaned from net foreign activity statistics on PSE website. I also see that from my daily examination of summary of broker net activities provided by my online broker service, with the premise that most foreign funds will use the big foreign brokerages. This fact is also corroborated by comments from professional stock analysts.
  4. There have been US Fed meetings and attendant analyses and opinions on what will happen to the US rates. There is speculation that rates will rise, which tends to pull out funds from emerging markets back to the US.

Hypotheses on the Index Drop:

  1. US rate hike concerns. The drop is due to foreign funds pulling out and transferring to the US markets. This explanation was picked by some registered financial planners. One made the pronouncement that Duterte is NOT the cause of the drop.
  2. Another registered financial planner stated it is the nature of the stock market to go up and down. Effect of politics on stock markets is smaller than what most people think.
  3. Duterte effect: Investors are pulling out because are uneasy over the unpredictability of Duterte. This explanation was offered by a brokerage president, stock market traders, and bank economists.
  4. Combination of effects

Take-away Points

  1. In the absence of complete information, market players at best can only make intelligent conjectures.
  2. To declare boldly that the drop has nothing to do with Duterte's recent actions and pronouncement is to beg the question or to assume outright what needs to be established. In the absence of statistics or feedback to prove that no single major investor pulled out because of political concerns, the pronouncement is just a matter of faith or political belief.
  3. While politics normally has little effect on the stock markets on most days, on crucial periods like political crises, the stock market moves in a big way. That was seen during the time of Joseph Estrada impeachment, and several coup d' etat in the past.
  4. More likely there is interplay of factors. Which factor has the strongest pull, I leave it up to you to bet on.
  5. The markets feed on emotions and sentiments. To completely ignore them is to risk misreading its signals.



Tuesday, September 6, 2016

The War Against Logical Fallacies

We miss out on reaching favorable agreements when our discussions are addled with logical fallacies. Super bad trip too if we end up being unwitting victims of malicious forces trying to twist our minds. Let us fight misunderstanding and propaganda together by getting to know these logical fallacies.



Fallacies of Relevance

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Ad Hominem (Personal Attack)
    Issue:      Extra-judicial killings with Senator De Lima doing investigation
    Fallacy:    We should not listen to the investigation 
                   because De Lima is an immoral lady.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bandwagon Fallacy (The popular idea is correct)

    Issue:     Best approach to combat drug problem
    Fallacy:   Sixteen million people voted for Duterte who promised an all-out                       war on drugs. Therefore, his approach to the drug problem is the 
                  best.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fallacy of Composition  (Applying the specific to the whole group)

    Issue:     Patriotism and Constructive Criticism
    Fallacy:   Every Filipino must support his President. Groups of people are 
                  criticizing the President. They are not worthy to be called Filipinos.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fallacy of Division (Generalizing from specifics)

    Issue:      Marcos burial at Libingan ng Mga Bayani
    Fallacy:    Duterte won by a simple majority. One of his campaign promises                      was to allow burial of Marcos in Libingan ng Mga Bayani.                                  Therefore, the majority are in favor of the burial.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Genetic Fallacy  (Arguing based on source, not merit)

   Issue:      Philippine membership in UN
   Fallacy:    As Duterte stated, membership in UN is useless.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Appeal to Consequences  (of believing or not believing)

   Issue:    Best approach to combat drug problem
   Fallacy:  If you do not support the current drive, you or your family may end 
                up being victims of a drug-related crime.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Appeal to Pity

    Issue:    Best approach to combat drug problem
    Fallacy:  Hindi ka ba naaawa doon sa batang ni-rape ng drug addict?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Red Herring  (Throwing another issue to divert attention)

    Issue:      Complying with international agreement on human rights
    Fallacy:    Ano na ba ang nagawa ng UN sa ibang bansa?
                   Nag-apologize ba ang America sa mga moro na napatay dati?
                   Nasaan ang CHR ng ginagahasa yung batang babae?


=================================================

                                                   

Fallacies of Presumption

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tu Quoque Fallacy (Somebody has done it before, it must be correct)

     Issue:     Wisdom of declaration of State of Lawlessness
     Fallacy:   Gloria has done it before, it must be correct.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subjectivist Fallacy  (Dismissing an objective conclusion as subjective)

   Issue:     Death of innocents in the campaign against drugs
   Fallacy:   You are only saying that (that innocents get killed) 
                 because you are a not a supporter of Duterte.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
False Dilemma / Bifurcation Fallacy (Acting as if there are only two alternatives)

    Fallacies:    Anong mas mabuti? Mapatay ang pulis, o mabaril ang pusher?
                     Kung hindi ka sumasang-ayon, hindi ka nakakatulong.
                     Bakit? Ayaw mo bang ma-sugpo ang krimen?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No True Scotsman Fallacy  

    Issue:     Wisdom of declaration of State of Lawlessness
    Fallacy:   Bakit ka ba kumokontra? Walang tutoong Filipino ang umaayaw sa 
                  pag-sugpo ng terorismo.


Saturday, June 13, 2015

The Calling: Vision, Mission, Values

Why blog?

The answers to this simple question reflect my corporate background, my predilection for clarifying vision, mission and values.


Vision
This blog stands out in the internet ocean of ideas as unique portal through which a bank risk manager, economist, teacher, optimist and realist shares his thoughts, and distills them with others, through others, for others.

Mission

  • Share what I have learned from readings, professional experience, and personal school of hard knocks
  • Contribute to nation building by arming the Filipino Everyman with knowledge, skills and insights on personal finance, economics, and entrepreneurship
  • Learn from others
Values
  • Integrity.  Write with honesty and independence. Avoid conflict of interest. This blog is my personal platform; my views should not be confused with those of my past or present employers or affiliations.
  • Openness.  Points of views are always value-laden. There are no right and wrong points of view; only views consistent or inconsistent with one's set of values.
  • Tolerance.  Disagreement in views is expected and tolerated; at times, even encouraged. What are discouraged and not tolerated are bad logic and bad manners.
  • Humility to acknowledge one's intellectual gifts and appreciate the gifts of others. The breadth, depth and diversity of the human intellectual gifts are staggering and awe-inspiring.
  • Faith. The true riches are in heaven. Always strive to write with honesty, with intent to share, help others, and glorify God, not oneself.